Forecasting Methodology Shows Health of Younger Generations in Jeopardy

Over the past century the life expectancy of Americans has continued to climb. However, recent projections by Utah State University sociologist Eric Reither, who specializes in the study of the consequences of the nation’s obesity epidemic, suggest this trend may be a thing of the past for some subsets of the population.

In a paper published online in the journal Health Affairs June 23, Reither and his co-authors, advocate using a new, more robust modeling system to project health trends that incorporate variations in health across different birth cohorts. Their findings show traditional forecasting methods may not only be inaccurate, but overly optimistic, because they do not account for the health risks accumulated by younger generations.

“Traditional projection methods look to the past and assume that improvements in the health and longevity of older Americans will be replicated and even improved upon in the future,” Reither said. “What we’re finding is that isn’t the case with the current obesity epidemic. We need to think of the health of today’s kids and adapt modeling so that is sensitized to their health if we’re going to make accurate predictions about the future.”

Reither, an associate professor of sociology in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at USU, collaborated with S. Jay Olshansky, professor of epidemiology at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and Yang Yang, an associate professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to analyze patterns of coronary heart disease mortality published by the National Center for Health Statistics during 1960-99. They were interested in learning whether trends from the past could be used to correctly forecast the death rates observed among men today.

The investigators used a conventional forecasting approach to project mortality in 2002 and 2007 and compared them with calculations from more sophisticated “three-dimensional” modeling systems that account for the health status of younger cohorts. They found the traditional method resulted in less accurate predictions, particularly among men under 50 — precisely those generations impacted more heavily by the nation’s obesity epidemic, Reither said.

Numerous studies have shown that adults in the United States are heavier now than ever before, and that they are becoming obese at younger ages. For instance, over the past decade, long-term improvements in coronary heart disease mortality have reversed among young adult men, and an early June 2011 report in Population Health Metrics revealed that life expectancy has declined for women in specific regions of the United States.

“In the United States, we can actually see subsets of the population where it’s already happening,” Reither said.

Declines in life expectancy are most pronounced among women in areas of the Southeast where the obesity epidemic has struck the hardest. African American women and certain other ethnic minority populations, including Native Americans and Alaskan Natives, appear to be the most at risk. However, obesity in America has been on the rise nationwide since the 1980s. With the population becoming heavier faster, people are living a longer portion of their lives with the risks and conditions associated with obesity, such as Type2 diabetes.

“It’s not just about how long you will live,” said Reither. “It’s about quality of life.”

He and his colleagues believe that newer forecasting techniques reflect a more accurate and bleaker health outlook than is currently anticipated, unless aggressive public health campaigns are launched. Their calculations suggest that certain subgroups in the U.S. population face declining health and a shorter lifespan than has been reported.

“The future of health and longevity will be driven by the accumulated experiences of people now alive, not by the past life, health and mortality of the recently deceased,” they write in their paper “New Forecasting Methodology Indicates More Disease and Earlier Mortality Ahead for Today’s American Children.” “Using the childhood and obesity epidemic in the United States as an example, it is suggested here that the future health and longevity of an entire generation of young Americans may be in jeopardy.”

The researchers’ paper will be available online for two weeks beginning June 23 and then appear in the August issue of Health Affairs.

The authors propose that lawmakers consult three-dimensional health forecasts as a supplement to more conventional forecasting methods, which when used alone can lead to inaccurate results and poor policy decisions. For example, they point to a $1 trillion gap in state pension funds that exists between what was promised retirees and what is available because positive health gains were not captured in life expectancy forecasts.

The researchers call for additional measures to implement effective prevention programs for obesity-related issues, and provide support for programs aimed at improving health such as First Lady Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move” campaign.

“We hope that people will take our message seriously and redouble efforts to develop effective public health programs,” Reither said. “It’s not too late to turn this around. We need to stop relying upon the experiences of older cohorts as the basis for predicting the future health of America’s children.”

Related links:

• USU Department of Sociology, Social Work and Anthropology
• USU College of Humanities and Social Sciences
• The paper, in its entirety, is available online for a two-week period beginning Thursday, June 23.

Writer: Kristen Munson, PR specialist, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, (435) 797-0267, kristen.munson@usu.edu

Contact: Eric N. Reither, (435) 797-1217, eric.reither@usu.edu