Collaborative Research Efforts to Solve Complex Problems Highlighted at Research Landscapes

How are good decisions made when the future is unclear?

This was the question asked during “Building for Tomorrow: Utah’s Changing Relationship With Snow in a Future Climate,” a Research Landscapes presentation. The Nov. 14 event in Salt Lake City event featured Brennan L. Bean and Wei Zhang presenting on their joint research initiative.

Bean, a data scientist, and Zhang, a climate scientist, are expanding the path for transforming data analysis into impactful decisions. Their research aims to inform the first formal initiative to incorporate climate change considerations into U.S. building design standards. By blending data science with domain expertise, they can consider possible outcomes through probability estimates.

“This is a problem that can’t be solved by either one of our disciplines on their own,” Bean said. “The hope is that when we work together, we can figure out how to get insight on this problem.”

Researchers typically use a combination of data and scientific methods to develop theories and draw conclusions. However, Bean and Zhang have taken the innovative approach of applying this process to real-world situations in the context of a changing climate.

In Utah, snow accumulation is a critical factor in building construction. Structures must be engineered to endure potential snow loads while avoiding excessive costs associated with over-engineering.

Historical weather data plays a vital role, as it helps assess past snowpack levels and identify extreme weather occurrences. Historical weather measurements are compiled, analyzed and mapped at thousands of measurement stations across the continent; engineers then use that information to establish building codes and to make other essential decisions.

But what if the future doesn't resemble the past?

The reliability of historical data is tested by changing climate patterns. Today's structures must be designed to withstand a wider range of weather conditions that may arise from future climate change.

“The key is that we don’t just react to things we’ve seen,” Bean said. “We have to be proactive about things we’ve yet to see. That involves thinking about snow accumulation in terms of probability.”

Bean and Zhang combine historical data with future climate models to create a range of possible outcomes. This integration of climate and data science provides better information for engineers and decision-makers.

“We have to make decisions today about the society we’ll live in tomorrow,” Bean said. “The buildings we’re constructing today will be here for our children and our grandchildren. We have to be willing to trust probability to guide our decision-making because we don’t have another choice.”

Research Landscapes is an event series hosted by the Utah State University Office of Research and sponsored by O.C. Tanner. The series connects decision-makers across the Wasatch Front with the researchers exploring Utah’s land, water, and air.

Learn more about past events and RSVP for future events at researchlandscapes.usu.edu.